Trust your instruments
What
When I was learning to fly, my instructors made it crystal clear that once you went into clouds, the only thing that mattered was what the instruments told you. We learnt about the various illusions that affect us when we can't see outside and how quickly an inexperienced pilot, believing that they're flying straight and level, can find themselves spinning out of control and ultimately crashing into the ground. In this case their situational awareness had been reduced to zero, often despite the fact that had they realised they could have used the information at their disposal to safely fly and recover to their destination.
When we take jobs as leaders, no-one tells us to trust the instruments. Often, we don’t even know what the instruments are. It’s all too common for a new leader to bumble their way through, making decisions that are based on the leader’s perception of reality - but with no way to confirm that perception. This leaves leaders—from team leaders to board chairs—flying blind and relying on subjective assessments instead of objective information.
Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, in his book "Thinking Fast and Slow", describes the two systems that our brain uses for processing information and making decisions. System 1 is fast and intuitive and relies primarily on internal information to make rapid decisions. System 2, on the other hand, is slow and requires effort. It involves our conscious brain and critically analysing information to reach a decision.
When pilots are flying with the ability to see outside, they can often use System 1 as the primary means to fly safely. They use instinctual reactions once they have the experience to do so; primarily sight, but also sound and proprioception—which is effectively the feeling of the seat underneath their butt—in order to determine the orientation of the aircraft, its speed, and the reaction to any external inputs like turbulence.
When flying in cloud or reduced visibility without the horizon to act as an anchor for situational awareness, other factors creep in. In particular the proprioceptive system (for example our balance mechanisms located inside the inner ear) starts to become more prevalent and can provide false information about the attitude of the aircraft. This can lead to false perceptions of flying straight and level…when in reality, the aircraft's attitude is anything but.
This imbalance between what a pilot sees and what they feel can be very disorienting. Formally referred to as spatial disorientation, it is often colloquially referred to as ‘the leans’. This can be a very dangerous situation. The internal feeling of not being straight and level, when in fact you are, is what drives some pilots to override their instruments, to dismiss the information that they have, and to believe that what they feel is more correct than what they see. When they trust the instruments and keep the aircraft straight and level, they feel as though they are leaning and will often physically tilt their head to resolve the dissonance between what they see and what they feel.
When faced with these circumstances, every pilot flying without visual reference to the horizon is taught one thing and one thing above all: trust your instruments. No matter how you feel, no matter the strength of the feeling that is telling you that the aircraft is banking despite what the attitude indicator is telling you, you must trust the instruments. Safety and the lives of people aboard your aircraft depend on this.
So What
Decision makers on the ground can find themselves in the same situation. Humans are subject to all kinds of biases and heuristics. System 1, which is lazy, often takes control and guides us towards decisions that may not be in our best interest. We need to recognise when situations require System 2 thinking and to know what are the information sources that are accurate and might require us to override System 1's internal beliefs.
An example is the stock market. When the broad market is falling, it can be easy to go along with social proof, believing that if everybody's selling, selling must be the right thing to do. In this circumstance though, an experienced analyst will understand that the better path is to trust their instruments. Gathering information, objectively assessing what's in front of them, and forcing themselves to use System 2 to conduct a rational analysis is likely to produce a better outcome than getting swept up with everybody else - who are themselves being swept up as part of a larger crowd. There’s a reason why Warren Buffett recommends that investors be greedy when others are fearful - he knows how to follow his instruments.
Another example might be in a boardroom. Boards at the moment are faced with the decision about integrating AI into enterprise IT setups. It is easy to see the glossy marketing, the promise of productivity, and the potential for lower overheads, and board directors may find themselves flying by the seat of their pants - trusting the sales without verifying the data. In this circumstance, a courageous leader may be forced to overcome the tendency to agree with the group, and to go along with consensus. Instead, gathering enough information to make an informed decision is the best way to trust your instruments. Armed with and trusting in objective knowledge, you can pilot the course through uncertainty and ensure a safe landing for the company.
What Next
Every leader is a decision maker. Knowing what decisions you make helps you determine what information is driving those decisions. Being aware of these decisions—and the information that feeds the—creates the situational awareness that you need to make the decisions that you make. When it comes to informing those decisions, know when you need to trust your instruments. Understand what information is objective and might go against System 1’s intuition but, when examined under the cold hard light of day, is going to be more accurate and provide the better course of action.
Note also that some decisions can be made via intuition. None of the above is to say that you must always default to System 2 - that’s not the case. Rather, leaders need to be aware of when they are entering the metaphorical cloud, and recognise those decisions that may be overly influenced by biases or heuristics.
Action
Think about one of the decisions that you make on a regular basis. Being a regular decision, is this something that you can easily make using System 1, knowing that your intuition and pattern recognition will provide an optimal outcome? Or are there circumstances where this decision might be clouded, where you might not have the visual horizon that you need to best determine the optimal course of outcome and will need to instead trust your instruments?
Those instruments might be advice from other members of the team. It might be data analysis that you conduct to confirm what System 1 is telling you. Whatever the case, recognising when you're in a situation that requires you to trust your instruments is important. Take the opportunity to review what those instruments are, know when to trust them, and have systems in place to help you make optimal decisions based on the best possible situational awareness. Because the leans don't just happen at 10,000 feet. They happen in every boardroom, every strategy session, every moment a leader chooses gut feel over good data. Know your instruments. Trust them.